A mere eight weeks prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while Unai Emery scolded him over missing a penetrating pass. During that period, with the team failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were an indicator or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their opening six matches, find themselves a mere three points adrift of pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult question to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club who have just won 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however right now the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with rivals before hoping their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from a wide position. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those fixtures.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists another reality in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Important figures may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the player he resembled in Germany.
- The defensive duo are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the match-winner faced the home supporters when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
